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Central Bank Research Hub - European Central Bank Working papers



A value at risk analysis of cedit default swaps (JEL E43, G12, G13)

by Burkhard Raunig and Martin Scheicher968
(Nov 2008)

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Central Bank misperceptions and the role of money in interest rate rules. (JEL E32, E41, E43, E52, E58)

by Guenter W. Beck and Volker Wieland967
(Nov 2008)

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Large Bayesian VARs (JEL C11, C13, C33, C53)

by Marta Banbura966
(Nov 2008)

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IMF lending and geopolitics (JEL F33, H77, O19)

by Julien Reynaud and Julien Vauday965
(Nov 2008)

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Do firms provide wage insurance against shocks? Evidence from Hungary (JEL C33, D21, J33, J41)

by Gábor Kátay964
(Nov 2008)

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Public and private sector wages: co-movement and causality (JEL C32, E62, E63, H50, J30, J51, J52)

by Ana Lamo963
(Nov 2008)

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Optimal monetary policy and the transmission of oil-supply shocks to the euro area under rational expectations (JEL E4, E5, F4)

by Stéphane Adjemian and Matthieu Darracq Paričs962
(Nov 2008)

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Budgetary and external imbalances relationship: a panel data diagnostic (JEL C23, E62, F32, H62)

by António Afonso and Christophe Rault961
(Nov 2008)

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On implications of micro price data for macro models (JEL E3, E5)

by Bartosz Mackowiak and Frank Smets960
(Nov 2008)

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Oil exporters: in search of an external anchor (JEL C30, C51, C61, F31, O24)

by Maurizio Michael Habib and Jan Stráský958
(Nov 2008)

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Modeling autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis with multi-quantile CAViaR (JEL C13, C32)

by Halbert White957
(Nov 2008)

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The political economy under monetary union: has the euro made a difference? (JEL F31, F33, G14)

by Marcel Fratzscher and Livio Stracca956
(Nov 2008)

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Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles

by Lawrence Christiano, Cosmin Ilut955
(Oct 2008)

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Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence and discretion (JEL E62, H50)

by António Afonso954
(Oct 2008)

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Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model (JEL C53, E37)

by Elena Angelini953
(Oct 2008)

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Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macro-economic forecasts (JEL C52, E30, E32, E37)

by Ricardo Mestre and Peter McAdam950
(Oct 2008)

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Short-term forecasts of euro area GDP growth (JEL C33, C53, E52)

by Elena Angelini, Gonzalo Camba-Méndez, Domenico Giannone949
(Oct 2008)

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How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates? (JEL F31, F33, F50, G7)

by Marcel Fratzscher952
(Oct 2008)

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Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy: the role of emerging market economies (JEL F10, F30, F41)

by Matthieu Bussičre and Tuomas A. Peltonen951
(Oct 2008)

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Clustering techniques applied to outlier detection of financial market series using a moving window filtering algorithm (JEL C19, C49, G19)

by Josep Maria Puigvert Gutiérrez and Josep Fortiana Gregori948
(Oct 2008)

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Foreign-currency bonds: currency choice and the role of uncovered and covered interest parity (JEL F31, F36, G14, G15, G32)

by Maurizio Michael Habib and Mark Joy947
(Oct 2008)

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Macroeconomic adjustment to monetary union (JEL E21, F32, F36)

by Gabriel Fagan and Vítor Gaspar946
(Oct 2008)

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Wage and price dynamics in Portugal (JEL C32, C51, E31, J30)

by Carlos Robalo Marques945
(Oct 2008)

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The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis (JEL C11, C32, E32, E37)

by Kai Christoffel944
(Oct 2008)

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How does competition affect efficiency and soundness in banking? New empirical evidence (JEL G21, G28, L11)

by Klaus Schaeck and Martin Cihák932
(Oct 2008)

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Channels of international risk-sharing: capital gains versus income flows (JEL F21, F30, F36)

by Thierry Bracke and Martin Schmitz938
(Sep 2008)

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Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios (JEL C00, G11)

by Joshua Brodie, Ingrid Daubechies, Christine De Mol936
(Sep 2008)

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International stock return comovements

by Geert Bekaert931
(Sep 2008)

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Sticky information Phillips curves: European evidence (JEL D84, E31)

by Jörg Döpke, Jonas Dovern930
(Sep 2008)

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The impact of financial position on investment: an anlysis for non-financial corporations in the euro area. (JEL C33, E22, G32, J23)

by Carmen Martinez-Carrascal and Annalisa Ferrando943
(Sep 2008)

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An application of index numbers theory to interest rates (JEL C43, E43)

by Javier Huerga and Lucia Steklacova939
(Sep 2008)

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Towards a monetary policy evaluation framework (JEL E4, E5, F4)

by Stéphane Adjemian942
(Sep 2008)

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Euro's influence upon trade: Rose effect versus border effect (JEL F10, F14, F15)

by Gianluca Cafiso941
(Sep 2008)

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The effect of durable goods and ICT on euro area productivity growth? (JEL E01, E21, E22, J24, O11)

by Jukka Jalava and Ilja Kristian Kavonius940
(Sep 2008)

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Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence (JEL E62, F32, F41)

by Christiane Nickel and Isabel Vansteenkiste935
(Sep 2008)

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Bank mergers and lending relationships (JEL G21, G34)

by Judit Montoriol-Garriga934
(Sep 2008)

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Import price dynamics in major advanced economies and heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through (JEL E31, F3, F41)

by Stéphane Dées933
(Sep 2008)

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Real convergence in Central and Eastern European EU Member States: which role for exchange rate volatility? (JEL F3, F4, F5)

by Olga Arratibel929
(Sep 2008)

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Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillane in Europe? (JEL C53, E6, H6)

by Diego J. Pedregal and Javier J. Pérez937
(Sep 2008)

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Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve under Model uncertainty (JEL C5, E4, G1)

by Paola Donati and Francesco Donati917
(Aug 2008)

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Resuscitating the wage channel in models with unemployment fluctuations (JEL E24, E31, E32, J64)

by Kai Christoffel and Keith Kuester923
(Aug 2008)

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Corporate tax competition and the decline of public investment

by Pedro Gomes and Francois Pouget928
(Aug 2008)

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Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: a contribution to assessing risks to price stability

by Roberto A. De Santis926
(Aug 2008)

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Monetary stabilisation in a currency union of small open economies

by Marcelo Sánchez927
(Aug 2008)

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Flow on conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity (JEL C22, C53, E17)

by Katja Drechsel and Laurent Maurin925
(Aug 2008)

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Government spending volatility and the size of nations (JEL E62, H10)

by Davide Furceri and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro924
(Aug 2008)

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An investigation on the effect of real exchange rate movements on OECD bilateral exports (JEL D73, F10, F32)

by Antoine Berthou920
(Jul 2008)

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A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models (JEL C32, C51, C52)

by Lucia Alessi922
(Jul 2008)

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Foreign direct investment and environmental taxes (JEL F12, F18, F23)

by Roberto A. De Santis and Frank Stähler921
(Jul 2008)

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Fiscal policy in real time (JEL C23, E30, E62, H30, H60)

by Jacopo Cimadomo919
(Jul 2008)

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Imports and profitability in the euro area manufacturing sector: the role of emerging market economies (JEL C23, F12, L11, L13)

by Tuomas A. Peltonen, Martin Skala918
(Jul 2008)

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Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops: the euro and the dollar as safe haven currencies (JEL F31, F32, F33, G11)

by Roland Beck and Ebrahim Rahbari916
(Jul 2008)

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Globalisation and the euro area: simulation based analysis using the New Area Wide Model. (JEL E32, E62)

by Roland Straub and Pascal Jacquinot907
(Jun 2008)

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How has CDO market pricing changed during the turmoil? Evidence from CDS index tranches (JEL E43, G12, G13)

by Martin Scheicher910
(Jun 2008)

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Medium run redux: technical change, factor shares and frictions in the euro area

by Peter McAdam and Alpo Willman915
(Jun 2008)

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Evolution and sources of manufacturing productivity growth: evidence from a panel of European countries

by Silvia Giannangeli and Ramón Gómez-Salvador914
(Jun 2008)

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Country and industry equity risk premia in the euro area: an intertemporal approach

by Lorenzo Cappiello913
(Jun 2008)

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Labour cost and employment across euro area countries and sectors

by Beatrice Pierluigi and Moreno Roma912
(Jun 2008)

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Global liquidity glut or global savings glut? A structural VAR approach

by Thierry Bracke and Michael Fidora911
(Jun 2008)

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Repo markets, counterparty risk and the 2007/2008 liquidity crisis

by Christian Ewerhart and Jens Tapking909
(Jun 2008)

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3-step analysis of public finances sustainability: the case of the European Union

by António Afonso and Christophe Rault908
(Jun 2008)

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The impact of the euro on equity markets: a country and sector decomposition

by Lorenzo Cappiello906
(Jun 2008)

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A persistence-weighted measure of core inflation in the euro area

by Laurent Bilke and Livio Stracca905
(Jun 2008)

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Does money matter in the IS curve? The case of the UK

by Barry E. Jones and Livio Stracca904
(Jun 2008)

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Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help? (JEL C25, E37, E52)

by Fabrizio Venditti900
(Jun 2008)

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A robust criterion for determining the number of static factors in approximate factor models. (JEL C52)

by Lucia Alessi903
(May 2008)

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On the empirical evidence of the intertemporal current account model for the euro area countries (JEL D91, F36, F41)

by Michele Ca' Zorzi and Michal Rubaszek895
(May 2008)

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The role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production: perspective from large panel factor models (JEL C3, C53, E37)

by Matthieu Darracq Paričs and Laurent Maurin894
(May 2008)

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Sticky wages: evidence from quarterly microeconomic data

by Thomas Heckel893
(May 2008)

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Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: long-run benefits and short-run costs. (JEL E32, E62)

by Günter Coenen902
(May 2008)

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The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area (JEL C53, E6, H6)

by Luca Onorante, Diego J. Pedregal901
(May 2008)

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Robust monetary rules under unstructured and structured model uncertainty (JEL E37, E52, E58)

by Paul Levine899
(May 2008)

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Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence (JEL E52, E58)

by Alan S. Blinder, Michael Ehrmann, Jakob de Haan898
(May 2008)

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DSGE-Modelling: when agents are imperfectly informed (JEL E10, E32)

by Paul De Grauwe897
(May 2008)

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The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and Optimal Monetary Policy for the EMU Accession Countries.

by Anna Lipinska896
(May 2008)

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Credit and the natural rate of interest.

by Fiorella De Fiore and Oreste Tristani889
(Apr 2008)

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House Prices and the stance of Monetary Policy. (JEL E3, E4)

by Marek Jarocinski and Frank Smets891
(Apr 2008)

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House Prices, Money, Credit and the Macroeconomy. (JEL E21, E22, E31, E32, E44, E47, E50, R21, R31)

by Charles Goodhart and Boris Hofmann888
(Apr 2008)

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Identification of new Keynesian Phillips Curves from a global perspective. (JEL C32, E17, F37, F42)

by Stéphane Dées, Hashem Pesaran892
(Apr 2008)

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Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps: Evidence from the euro area (JEL E3, F4)

by Alessandro Calza890
(Apr 2008)

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Labor supply after transition: evidence from the Czech Republic (JEL J22, J31, P30)

by Alena Bicáková887
(Mar 2008)

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Nominal and real interest rates during an optimal disinflation in New Keynesian models. (JEL E41, E43, E51, E52)

by Marcus Hagedorn878
(Mar 2008)

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Impact of bank competition on the interest rate pass-through in the euro area (JEL D4, E50, G21, L10)

by Michiel van Leuvensteijn, Christoffer Kok Sřrensen885
(Mar 2008)

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A quantitative perspective on optimal monetary policy cooperation between the US and the euro area (JEL E4, E5, F4)

by Stéphane Adjemian884
(Mar 2008)

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Assessing the benefits of international portfolio diversification in bonds and stocks.

by Roberto A. De Santis and Lucio Sarno883
(Mar 2008)

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Forecasting world trade: direct versus "bottom-up" approaches (JEL C32, C53, E37, F17)

by Matthias Burgert and Stephane Dees882
(Mar 2008)

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On policy interactions among nations: when do cooperation and commitment matter? (JEL E52, E63)

by Hubert Kempf and Leopold von Thadden880
(Mar 2008)

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Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada (JEL E43, E62, H63, H74)

by Ludger Schuknecht879
(Mar 2008)

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What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis (JEL C32, E60, E62, H20, H50)

by Dario Caldara and Christophe Kamps877
(Mar 2008)

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Imperfect predictability and mutual fund dynamics. How managers use predictors in changing systematic risk. (JEL C11, C13, G12, G13)

by Gianni Amisano and Roberto Savona881
(Mar 2008)

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International evidence on sticky consumption growth. (JEL E21, F41)

by Christopher D. Carroll886
(Mar 2008)

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Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty. (JEL E37, E52, E58)

by Paul Levine, Peter McAdam870
(Feb 2008)

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Why do Europeans work part-time? A cross-country panel analysis. (JEL J21, J22, J28, J68)

by Hielke Buddelmeyer872
(Feb 2008)

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Globel Macro-financial shocks and expected default frequencies in the Euro Area (JEL C33, F47, G32, G33)

by Olli Castrén875
(Feb 2008)

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How Arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel Model? (JEL C14, C15, G12)

by Laura Coroneo874
(Feb 2008)

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Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP? (JEL C52, C53)

by Magnus Andersson and Antonello D’Agostino876
(Feb 2008)

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The Feldstein-Horioka fact (JEL C23, F32, F41)

by Domenico Giannone and Michele Len